“In recent weeks, we have seen the premium price of gas disappear due to the uncertainty of winter conditions, even if in the event of a cold snap or production problems, prices can go up,” Alexander Werner, Director of the Energy and Certification Division Gazoob.
But we understand that the volatility of the price of gas will not completely disappear, when the history of this market related to its storage capacity is remembered. “During the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, European stockpiles were well below normal levels,” He remembers. It’s at this moment-là que l’UE s’est fixé for objectif de remplir ses stocks à au moins 80% avant l’hiver, pour finalement atteindre près de 94% fin novembre 2022. This quoi modifier «the psychologie» from the market.
At the beginning of 2023, we are still above the target set by the European Union. The market realizes that the level of gas stocks is sufficient to survive the coming winter. As of January 24, the inventory level has reached 83.3%.
From 53 to 65 euros per MWh in the spot market
“Today, we are trading between 53 and 65 euros per MWh in the spot market,” Anticipating Alexander Werner says: Before the winter of 2023, prices should remain high, with a tariff of 120 euros per MWh. In 2024, the markets should return to 80-90 euros, to find a better situation in 2025. When all the infrastructures to accommodate LNG are in operation.
Another reassuring item, Our sources of supply are very diverse. Imports from Norway accounted for a much larger share (30%), along with imports from Great Britain and Algeria. Alexander Werner confirms. The multiplicity of suppliers is likely to reassure the sensitivity of the markets. He concludes that we are no longer prisoners of a (Russian) monopoly that completely controlled the gas market.